October 25, 2024
By Troutman Pepper
Troutman Pepper Strategies is tracking the 2024 election closely, monitoring the outcome of key House districts and Senate seats, as well as their ramifications for control of each chamber. Below is a glimpse into the dynamics at play for Vice President Harris and former President Trump, as well as down-ballot races. We will keep you apprised of relevant developments and results as ballots are tabulated but should a specific race interest you or a colleague and you would like more information to pass along, do not hesitate to reach out. In the days following the election we will report on possible administration picks, as well as provide a more holistic outlook once results are final. Please CLICK HERE for our full report.
As November 5 approaches and early voting is already underway in most states, the outcome of Election Day remains as uncertain as ever. As of October 24, 538’s national polling average shows Harris up 1.7 points over Trump. Trump, however, has seen recent upticks in the polls in battleground states across the U.S., leading many to think he could be on the path to a win. Voter turnout for either presidential candidate could sway the down-ticket voting and results for several pivotal U.S. Senate and House races — many of which could determine the majority for either chamber. As many as eight states (when including NE-2) are in play and have been listed as toss-ups for Harris and Trump — all showing polls within the margin of error for each candidate.
On Election Day, Harris can expect 226 electoral college votes safely in hand. Her entrance into the race has reshaped the map, putting Georgia and North Carolina in play for Democrats, states where President Joe Biden was seeing much weaker support this election cycle. Harris, however, has proven to be a bit weaker in the upper Midwest, seeing less support in polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania than Biden has traditionally seen. Harris’ summer surge has seemed to flatline, while Trump has ticked up recently in some states but may also be coming up to a ceiling. With margins like this, the ground game and voter motivation will be the biggest determinant, save for a late surprise.
Meanwhile, the contests for majority control of the House and Senate remain as tight as the race for the White House. In the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of only two seats to win the majority outright, or only one seat if Trump wins the election and Vice President J.D. Vance can break a 50-50 vote. In the House, Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to retake the majority and seem poised to pick up at least a couple seats in California and New York, while Republicans have good opportunities for pick-ups in North Carolina due to redistricting.
Our report discusses just some of the factors at play for turnout across the U.S. and the outlook for the election. Given the outcome uncertainty, Troutman Pepper Strategies will wait until after the election, when most races are decided, to analyze the results for policy directions in the House and the Senate for each party and preview a new administration’s interaction with Congress in balance with their indicated policy goals. Please CLICK HERE for our full report.
